SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Global Strategy: The Critical “Phony War”
Beijing’s new war against the US and the West could be won or lost before kinetic actions get serious
Afghanistan
Beijing’s “Unavoidable” War: The 21st Century’s Total War Has Begun
The new form of “total war” which Beijing has begun is more comprehensive and amorphous than any strategic engagement seen thus far in history. And Beijing has learned from history: direct military engagement is, of necessity, a very secondary component. This is a war which Pres.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Turkey Attempts Stand-Alone Power Status, But…
Erdogan is rapidly running out of options, and allies. His only firm ally is Qatar; his relationships with Russia, Iran, and China are hedged with mutual distrust and caution. Indeed, the question should increasingly be asked: Does Erdogan actually have a power base absent MIT?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Outlook Post-COVID-19: Re-Thinking Much of Africa
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Outlook Post-COVID-19: Re-Thinking Iran
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
War in a Time of Weakness
The 2020 Fear Pandemic breakpoint has moved the world from “strategic competition” to semi-formal hostilities. It is now about strategic management in a period of economic and population decline.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Iran May Have Reached a Strategic Plateau with Soleimani’s Death
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Intelligence Sharing: Five Eyes Mark II?
The UKUSA Accords have essentially “commoditized” intelligence product and its exchange between its signatories. What is necessary to restore the strategic aspects of this, the key Western alliance structure?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
What Happens in the Vacuum After the Passing of Sultan Qaboos of Oman?
Oman will remain a pillar of stability because of Qaboos’ legacy, but he will be profoundly missed.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Washington’s Dilemma: Central Asia? Or Another Jab at the PRC?
The US will have to make a choice: Is supporting a vibrant and strong Central Asian economic zone more strategically valuable than attempting to worsen the PRC’s Uighur challenge? Could the choice also help free Washington from having to accede to the pressures of the Turkish President?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Turkey on the Prowl Again
Turkey’s revised policy for the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East is based on expanding its illegal occupation of Cyprus to dominate the entire island and the region. It is upgrading capabilities accordingly.