GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
War in a Time of Weakness
The 2020 Fear Pandemic breakpoint has moved the world from “strategic competition” to semi-formal hostilities. It is now about strategic management in a period of economic and population decline.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Iran May Have Reached a Strategic Plateau with Soleimani’s Death
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Intelligence Sharing: Five Eyes Mark II?
The UKUSA Accords have essentially “commoditized” intelligence product and its exchange between its signatories. What is necessary to restore the strategic aspects of this, the key Western alliance structure?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
What Happens in the Vacuum After the Passing of Sultan Qaboos of Oman?
Oman will remain a pillar of stability because of Qaboos’ legacy, but he will be profoundly missed.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Washington’s Dilemma: Central Asia? Or Another Jab at the PRC?
The US will have to make a choice: Is supporting a vibrant and strong Central Asian economic zone more strategically valuable than attempting to worsen the PRC’s Uighur challenge? Could the choice also help free Washington from having to accede to the pressures of the Turkish President?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Turkey on the Prowl Again
Turkey’s revised policy for the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East is based on expanding its illegal occupation of Cyprus to dominate the entire island and the region. It is upgrading capabilities accordingly.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Between Temptation and Desperation
A significant impact is likely on world energy markets over 2020 along with escalation of attacks by Iranian-backed units against US and other targets following the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Central Asia as the New Indo-Pacific Power
The Central Asian states may finally find cohesion … and warm water ports in the Indian Ocean.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Why Britain’s Brexit Election Was a Pivotal Global Issue
Britain, post-Brexit, can become the cornerstone of a new, global NATO, even as the UK-EU trade relationship is being settled. In the meantime, US and Commonwealth links can substantially bolster NATO’s probable Indo-Pacific mission, while also contributing to a revived UK trading pattern.
SOVEREIGNTY