SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Military Conflict Evolves, and with It, Uncertainty
Armed conflicts are now more likely to occur, but warfighting lessons — from Russia-Ukraine and the PRC-ROC/US — are still incomplete, and outcomes uncertain.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Chaos, and the Opportunity for Choice
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | While Ukraine Burns, Turkey Ponders a War with Greece
Turkey’s President is now at his most desperate position since he became Prime Minister in 2003, and has a limited timeframe in which to recover his position, either electorally or, due to a national security emergency, before the June 2023 elections.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Immediate Strategic Consequences of the Ukraine War
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Future Security: Cometh the Hour …
Cold War II has begun. The global architecture has now changed. What can we expect in the security and strategic realms?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
ESSENTIAL READING | Uncivil Outlooks
Important New Strategic Literature
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Indonesia’s Uncertainties Pique Beijing’s Hopes
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Ethiopians Have “Become Lost”: What’s Next?
Could a military intervention be the only answer if the system becomes more stressed, and external pressures threaten the break-up of Ethiopia?
RESOURCES
How the Ukraine War Has Saved Communist China
Beijing finally has the chance to throw off some of its dependency on US food supplies, giving it an enormous new lease of strategic freedom.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
US-Russia: Do All Major Wars Begin With “Phony Wars”?
It started as an information dominance campaign carried out abroad to distract US voters from the unpopularity of their government, running up to new elections. But it has placed Ukraine in a no-win situation, and has already led to a profound and lasting division in NATO.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | We Have Seen Defense’s Enemy, and it is Inflation. Or is it?
“New Defense” industrial thinking, with far greater private sector engagement from new companies using newer technological approaches, is starting to mirror the success of the “New Space” sector. Defense bureaucracies, however, are slower to adopt such anti-inflationary thinking.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Jakarta: Balancing, Yet Moving
Indonesia's movement toward greater regional economic and strategic power is showing success, and it is occurring with excruciating care to balance its position between superpowers.