ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
AUKUS: Key Western Alliance for the Coming Decades? And Why it Could Fail
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | While Ukraine Burns, Turkey Ponders a War with Greece
Turkey’s President is now at his most desperate position since he became Prime Minister in 2003, and has a limited timeframe in which to recover his position, either electorally or, due to a national security emergency, before the June 2023 elections.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Surviving the First Shot
It is said that no plan of campaign survives beyond the first shot fired. But, in the case of the Russia-Ukraine military campaign of February-March 2022, and — most importantly — all that contrived to its beginning, some trends and lessons are already visible.
HISTORY
Consequences: Today It Is Us; Tomorrow It Is You
The Horn of Africa is sliding toward a major war which seems likely to rapidly expand to embrace the major powers. The situation has strong parallels to the 1935 Italian invasion of Ethiopia, which began World War II and destroyed the League of Nations.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Beijing, Moscow, Ankara Push US Out of Red Sea Dominance
State Dept. sources admit privately that they were using the same playbook against Ethiopia as they used during the US Clinton Administration against Serbia in the 1990s to break up Yugoslavia and Serbia.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
ESSENTIAL READING | The Past as Prologue
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New “Go” Complexity of the Global “Great Game”
The chess-board of Central Asia’s “Great Game” was transformed into the intense complexity of the ancient Chinese game of Go — Weiqi — when the collapse of the latest phase of the eternal Afghan wars sent the consequences virally through global security frameworks.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
EN CLAIR | Cold War Redux: The West Loses Africa’s Horn
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Revisiting Diplomacy as a Strategic Capability in 21st Century Conflict
“Diplomacy” needs to be re-defined to allow it to emerge as a major strategic tool.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
New Realities Emerging in the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific is the anvil of a new world. But what exactly is the new world?