HISTORY
HISTORY
Consequences: Today It Is Us; Tomorrow It Is You
The Horn of Africa is sliding toward a major war which seems likely to rapidly expand to embrace the major powers. The situation has strong parallels to the 1935 Italian invasion of Ethiopia, which began World War II and destroyed the League of Nations.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
ESSENTIAL READING | Entering the Space Race
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | We Have Met the Enemy…
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Inertia’s Impact on Strategic Reality
Cyclic trendlines of growth and collapse in societies lead external observers to positions of either unrealistic optimism, unrealistic pessimism, or expectations of unrealistic timescales.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
ESSENTIAL READING | The Past as Prologue
HISTORY
ESSENTIAL READING | ...And One More on Greenland
HISTORY
ESSENTIAL READING | Polar Priorities
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Strategic Gambling of the Blind
The People’s Republic of China fights for survival; Russia surges; the US attempts to rebuild credibility; India sees its great opportunity; other powers are either dazed or prowling …
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New “Go” Complexity of the Global “Great Game”
The chess-board of Central Asia’s “Great Game” was transformed into the intense complexity of the ancient Chinese game of Go — Weiqi — when the collapse of the latest phase of the eternal Afghan wars sent the consequences virally through global security frameworks.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | New AUKUS Alliance Constrains Beijing; Transforms Indo-Pac
The AUKUS Alliance starts the process of the US ceding back to Britain some of its historical maritime presence.