GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
2021: Return of the Leaders
The great malaise of 2021 will be the year of opportunity for leaders to make their mark.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Long and Short of Ethiopia's Current Wars
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Global Power Disparity Resumes for Africa, Latin America
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Turkey Attempts Stand-Alone Power Status, But…
Erdogan is rapidly running out of options, and allies. His only firm ally is Qatar; his relationships with Russia, Iran, and China are hedged with mutual distrust and caution. Indeed, the question should increasingly be asked: Does Erdogan actually have a power base absent MIT?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Iran May Have Reached a Strategic Plateau with Soleimani’s Death
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
What Happens in the Vacuum After the Passing of Sultan Qaboos of Oman?
Oman will remain a pillar of stability because of Qaboos’ legacy, but he will be profoundly missed.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Between Temptation and Desperation
A significant impact is likely on world energy markets over 2020 along with escalation of attacks by Iranian-backed units against US and other targets following the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Nuclear Powers in the Act of Colliding
Iran now considers war against Israel to be feasible and winnable…and Israel responds
SOVEREIGNTY
Sovereignty in the Age of Beijing: Can the PRC “Save” Australia? Or Any Nation?
Many Australians believe that their nation is caught in a wedge between the People’s Republic of China, its biggest trading partner, and the United States, its security ally and biggest investor. But is it? And what are the choices now open to sovereign states as the new global architecture emerges?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Crosses a Threshold to Secure Regional Power
Iran’s leadership is confident it has succeeded in deterring the US from attack, and that Iran has now secured regional dominance as the US, it believes, winds down in the Persian Gulf.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Yemen Starts to Fracture, But is the Biggest Strategic Loss to the US?
The differentiation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the UAE and Oman … the impact on Bahrain … the uncertainties of the proposed pax Russo-Sinica in the Gulf … the prospect of a new opening for the US …