STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 09-2023
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
How the Prestige and Trust Deficit Impacts the Strategic Equation
Whole of society warfare — total war — must, to be successful, be conducted under an umbrella psychological strategy. This is not just “information warfare”: it goes to the content of all the messaging which generates trust or distrust, confidence or defeatism.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Horn of Africa - War is Over: Long Live the War?
Part of the great war in Ethiopia may be over. But another part is still virulent.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
EN CLAIR | Cold War Redux: The West Loses Africa’s Horn
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Ethiopia's Decisive War
Homer, almost 3,000 years ago, noted in the Iliad that Zeus, King of the Gods on Mount Olympus, went “to feast with the Æthiopians, loyal, lordly men, and all of the gods went with him”. Are the Gods still with the Ethiopians?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Amorphous Warfare: Genocide is Alive and Well in Africa
The Oromo war against Ethiopian nationalists and ethnic Amhara peoples is driven by small extremist groups, supported by foreign governments. But it is virulent and gaining traction. Moreover, its impact is strategic.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Outlook Post-COVID-19: Re-Thinking Much of Africa
CRIME & CORRUPTION
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Coronavirus, Corruption: Africa’s Inheritance from Beijing
A staff estimate on a topic of current significance.
CRIME & CORRUPTION
Death of a Nation: South Africa’s Refusal to Correct its Course of Corruption and Anger
Collapse in South Africa would have a significant impact on all Southern African regional states and societies, but it would also impact the global trading community and the guarantee of Atlantic-to-Indian Ocean maritime security.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.