STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Scramble for Antarctica
Barriers are coming down to unilateral power projection around the world as treaties and prestige decline for major powers. Now, Antarctica becomes truly an area of competition.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Is Beijing’s Relative Position Declining in the Pacific?
Internal challenges within the US and the PRC seem more likely than external events to determine the overall outcome of their strategic competition, but the broader Pacific context now seems to be nudging incrementally in favor of the US/Western position.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 04/2024
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
ESSENTIAL READING | Evaluating Warfare Through a Recent Lens
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
How Long Can Xi Stay Ahead of His Enemies?
The longer Xi staves off his enemies within the Communist Party, the more likely it is that the party will suffer or collapse along with Xi Jinping himself. Something must give, soon.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 03/2024
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The Caucasus: How Close is Armenia to Collapse?
Yerevan’s long list of self-inflicted wounds has culminated with its “break with Moscow”.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Geopolitics: The Re-Shaped Middle East Is Transforming the World
Old concepts of “the Middle East” using various geographic models, or using Arab or Arabic or Muslim overlays, are now not representative of the “new Middle East” which is, for the first time in centuries, less definable than ever, by its name and by other simple descriptors.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
EARLY WARNING | The Optimism-Fatalism Historical Cycle
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Has the “China Collapse” Already Been a “Soft Landing”?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Xi Jinping: The Future Emerges
Xi Jinping’s position was made more vulnerable by the Taiwanese presidential election, and now, with few options left, his exit is being plotted.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | The Return of Indonesia’s Old Élite … and an Earlier Vision?
Prabowo has repeatedly said that Indonesia’s democratic system was not working, and that the country should return to its 1945 constitution. Even so, the US may continue to woo Indonesia with advanced military equipment.