PERSONNEL
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Alliance Fracture is Now Global
It’s not just NATO; it’s the SCO, BRICS, and the Quad. And what of the UN?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Beijing’s Intelligence Failure
Few things have shaken the leaders of the Communist Party of China (CCP) as much as the US/Israeli war against Iran.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Transformation: the Eye of the Storm
Looking at the future from within the now-maturing maelstrom of trends and actions which are shaping the next strategic era and the probable new “rules-based world order”.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Curfew Tolls the Knell of Parting Day
Have I not told you, these recent years, that the cycle of great civilizational change is again upon us all? That, in the familiarity of days passing into days, the certainty of our lifetimes is being brought into a new world?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 02/2026
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Taking the Magic out of Strategic Analysis
Why were so few states prepared for the major strategic breakpoints over the past 50 years, when Defense & Foreign Affairs had consistently laid out just why change was occurring?
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | 2026: The Consequential Years Gather Momentum
It is not as though 2025 was an inconsequential year. Many strategic trends came into focus, particularly around the (finally) visible collapse of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). But 2026 will see the clarification of even more events of global consequence.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Universal Unrest and its Meaning
The crowds are in the streets, everywhere, and in different forms, showing signs of fatigue, anger, despair, and more. How does this impact policymaking, economics, and defense decision-making? And how can we think about, and cope, with this phenomenon?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Civilizational Collapse as Reality
The November 2025 publication of the United States' National Security Strategy was widely seen by critics as proof of a clear and explicit divergence between the United States and Europe.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Post-China: Thinking Beyond Beijing
The collapse of communist China had become irrefutable as 2025 came to an end.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | The Imperial Drumbeat Quickens
Imperial conquest is returning to the world in a new form, just as we have digested the earlier ages of imperial conquests. Our world is the result of the absorption of smaller states over millennia, even most states which emerged from colonialism in the latter half of the 20th Century.