SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
World War III: The Soft Launch
Everything is connected, and it’s starting to become clear with the US strategic operations.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
EN CLAIR | The Return of Taiwan: How Beijing’s Collapsing Influence Opens the Door for Taipei
Taiwan could be poised to benefit from the declining fortunes of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to conceivably begin expanding once again the number of nations with which it has diplomatic relations.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Beijing’s Intelligence Failure
Few things have shaken the leaders of the Communist Party of China (CCP) as much as the US/Israeli war against Iran.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Post-China: Thinking Beyond Beijing
The collapse of communist China had become irrefutable as 2025 came to an end.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | The Imperial Drumbeat Quickens
Imperial conquest is returning to the world in a new form, just as we have digested the earlier ages of imperial conquests. Our world is the result of the absorption of smaller states over millennia, even most states which emerged from colonialism in the latter half of the 20th Century.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
ESSENTIAL READING | An Apple a Day Didn’t Work Out Well
Apple is perhaps the single most important US tech company successfully supplying its commercial products to the world. This book presents a devastating picture of its foray into China and reveals the failure of the US Government to be a part of the considerations Apple took into account.
RESOURCES
Strategic Resources: Rare Earths in Australia
Modern war would chew through a lot of rare earth elements.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
China is Now in Suspended Animation
An almost universal desire to avoid change — particularly unpleasant change — helps the Communist Party of China portray an image of business-as-usual…when it’s not.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | How the US Prepares to Defeat the PRC in the Caribbean
It is not a question of if the US was now prepared to bring its conflict with Venezuela to a head; it was, by mid-October 2025, merely a matter of when and to what degree the matter would be brought to resolution.
RESOURCES
US-Australia Rare Earths Accord Disheartens the CCP
US President Donald Trump on October 20, 2025, acted to disrupt the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China by announcing a US way around the CCP’s ace negotiating position: the control of the export of rare earths and critical minerals to the US and the West.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 10/2025
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Collapse: How China Transforms
The mainland China of the past 76 years is coming to an end. What will be the new China?