DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
How Real is IMEC? As Real as AUKUS?
The surprise announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor lacks clarity as to the US's intention in drafting the concept, and how it will proceed.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Beijing’s Eurasia Strategy May Deliver Beijing its Coup de Main
Xi Jinping, facing a collapsing PRC domestic economy and food supply, could broker a Ukraine war peace which would bring Ukraine back into the Eurasian fold. After all, he has now completed a major consolidation of influence over Iran and Saudi Arabia, supported by Iraq and Oman.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Global Architecture: Xi in Arabia
It was more consequential than Washington realized. But now the battle has been joined.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
The UAE: Triumph of Will Over Oil
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Restoring the Power and Legitimacy of Governance
Could the restoration of aspects of a more traditional structure help stabilize and inspire Russian governance? Or, indeed, all governments?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
The Middle East: Abraham Changes Strategic Realities
A changed Middle East has emerged from the Abraham Accord. Who is ready?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Global Alignments: CANZUK Emerges from the Fog
Less than an empire, more than a commonwealth: a cohesive arrangement of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand offers new global geopolitical possibilities as perhaps the ultimate maritime power base.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing Responds to India and Cements a Bond With Iran
India not only humiliated the People’s Liberation Army in Ladakh, Kashmir, in June 2020, it made it clear to Beijing that it intended to confront the People’s Republic of China’s landbridge via Kashmir to the Indian Ocean, and to outflank it in Central Asia. Beijing responded with substance in Iran.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Turkey Attempts Stand-Alone Power Status, But…
Erdogan is rapidly running out of options, and allies. His only firm ally is Qatar; his relationships with Russia, Iran, and China are hedged with mutual distrust and caution. Indeed, the question should increasingly be asked: Does Erdogan actually have a power base absent MIT?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
What Happens in the Vacuum After the Passing of Sultan Qaboos of Oman?
Oman will remain a pillar of stability because of Qaboos’ legacy, but he will be profoundly missed.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Between Temptation and Desperation
A significant impact is likely on world energy markets over 2020 along with escalation of attacks by Iranian-backed units against US and other targets following the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Central Asia as the New Indo-Pacific Power
The Central Asian states may finally find cohesion … and warm water ports in the Indian Ocean.