CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Strategic Deception: Beijing’s Potemkin Silos?
Are the PRC’s “new ICBM silo fields” just a major strategic deception operation aimed at pushing the US to commit precious dollars down the wrong path?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Bracing for an Unusual Climax in the Horn of Africa
It was possible that the Ethiopian Military could have staged a coup against Dr Abiy, but even a military-controlled post-Abiy government would have had to move quickly to stop the rebels and their foreign sponsors, which include the Egyptian and US governments.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?
Afghanistan
AUKUS: The Dysfunctional Birth and Accidental Promise of the West’s New Global Alliance
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States hastily created a new global alliance, but its founders have different views of alliance priorities. AUKUS might actually work, but the US seems intent on jeopardizing Red Sea security, critical to making the bloc work.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Global Trends: Lostpolitik
Germany’s 2021 elections accelerated the leadership vacuum in the European Union and its growing strategic irrelevance, but equally highlighted the tentative rise of a new global power framework …
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Beijing, Moscow, Ankara Push US Out of Red Sea Dominance
State Dept. sources admit privately that they were using the same playbook against Ethiopia as they used during the US Clinton Administration against Serbia in the 1990s to break up Yugoslavia and Serbia.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | We Have Met the Enemy…
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Strategic Gambling of the Blind
The People’s Republic of China fights for survival; Russia surges; the US attempts to rebuild credibility; India sees its great opportunity; other powers are either dazed or prowling …
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New “Go” Complexity of the Global “Great Game”
The chess-board of Central Asia’s “Great Game” was transformed into the intense complexity of the ancient Chinese game of Go — Weiqi — when the collapse of the latest phase of the eternal Afghan wars sent the consequences virally through global security frameworks.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Stirring the Primordial Soup of a New World
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Afghanistan’s Centrality to the PRC, Russia, and India
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES