STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
What Happens in the Vacuum After the Passing of Sultan Qaboos of Oman?
Oman will remain a pillar of stability because of Qaboos’ legacy, but he will be profoundly missed.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 01/2020
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Between Temptation and Desperation
A significant impact is likely on world energy markets over 2020 along with escalation of attacks by Iranian-backed units against US and other targets following the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 12/2019
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Next-Gen Strategic Warfare
The Middle East is becoming a key node in the gradual introduction of “next-generation warfare”, as asymmetric confrontation necessitates a greater move toward technology-led Information Dominance doctrines.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Nuclear Powers in the Act of Colliding
Iran now considers war against Israel to be feasible and winnable…and Israel responds
SOVEREIGNTY
Sovereignty in the Age of Beijing: Can the PRC “Save” Australia? Or Any Nation?
Many Australians believe that their nation is caught in a wedge between the People’s Republic of China, its biggest trading partner, and the United States, its security ally and biggest investor. But is it? And what are the choices now open to sovereign states as the new global architecture emerges?
SOVEREIGNTY
A New “East-West” Fault Line
A new strategic framework is possible in which the US could regain some leverage in the Balkans and Eastern Mediterranean. And it could see a resolution of the Kosovo problem which has dogged US credibility in the region since 2008.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Crosses a Threshold to Secure Regional Power
Iran’s leadership is confident it has succeeded in deterring the US from attack, and that Iran has now secured regional dominance as the US, it believes, winds down in the Persian Gulf.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Yemen Starts to Fracture, But is the Biggest Strategic Loss to the US?
The differentiation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the UAE and Oman … the impact on Bahrain … the uncertainties of the proposed pax Russo-Sinica in the Gulf … the prospect of a new opening for the US …