DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Creating a New Sunni Axis?
The Turkish-inspired Sunni axis against Israel, Greece, and Cyprus is being attempted by Türkiye. But can it succeed?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New RedMed Jigsaw Puzzle
All the pieces are in play simultaneously.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Dividing the Red Sea Amongst Many
There’s more at stake for the international trading community — and regional states — than just skirmishing with Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are indirectly at war with each other, and, with Israel, against Türkiye; while Eritrea and Ethiopia prepare for war.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The UAE: Traditional Leadership, Modern Success
Is the United Arab Emirates’ model of monarchical leadership a positive strategic option for the 21st Century?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 04/2024
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Geopolitics: The Re-Shaped Middle East Is Transforming the World
Old concepts of “the Middle East” using various geographic models, or using Arab or Arabic or Muslim overlays, are now not representative of the “new Middle East” which is, for the first time in centuries, less definable than ever, by its name and by other simple descriptors.
AFRICA
Ethiopia: Close to Major Change?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Egypt’s Pres. Sisi Clears the Decks for Meaningful Action
A staff estimate on a topic of current importance
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Insurance Companies as Drivers of Strategic Outcomes
So far, the Yemeni attacks have been militarily ineffective, albeit psychologically critical. This is, in fact, primarily a psychological war gambit, and the impact on shipping insurance costs is proving strategically significant.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Waiting for Another Historical Parting on the Red Sea
So far, the Fano groups have not had foreign support, except for the moral support of Eritrea. But the next phase will see — as it did with the Arbegnoch in the 1939-41 phase — the establishment of unified communications and command.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
How Real is IMEC? As Real as AUKUS?
The surprise announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor lacks clarity as to the US's intention in drafting the concept, and how it will proceed.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Türkiye’s Strategic Penetration of Africa
Türkiye has established itself as a major strategic force in Africa, and works extensively through front groups controlled by its national intelligence service and a related “private military contractor”, SADAT.