GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
2021: Return of the Leaders
The great malaise of 2021 will be the year of opportunity for leaders to make their mark.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Long and Short of Ethiopia's Current Wars
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The US and the World: In With the Old; Out with the New
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | The “Abraham Accords” Put the US Back into the Middle East, But...
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | The Central Asian Bloc Galvanizes Rapidly at a Critical Time
Pakistan is the best option for Central Asia to get workable Indian Ocean ports, at Karachi and Gwadar. But this may be enough to trigger India into moving forward with its planned war against Pakistan-held Azad Kashmir.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Can Erdogan’s “Conflict in All Directions” Strategy Work?
Turkey seems to be at war on all fronts, particularly with its nominal allies. How can that work?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Amorphous Warfare: Genocide is Alive and Well in Africa
The Oromo war against Ethiopian nationalists and ethnic Amhara peoples is driven by small extremist groups, supported by foreign governments. But it is virulent and gaining traction. Moreover, its impact is strategic.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing Responds to India and Cements a Bond With Iran
India not only humiliated the People’s Liberation Army in Ladakh, Kashmir, in June 2020, it made it clear to Beijing that it intended to confront the People’s Republic of China’s landbridge via Kashmir to the Indian Ocean, and to outflank it in Central Asia. Beijing responded with substance in Iran.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Why Russia is Still the West’s “Pacing Threat”
Russia gives the West a military standard with which to compete. But it’s more than that.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
War as a (Fatal) Diversion From Reality
Egypt has been in a proxy war with Ethiopia. Ethiopia failed to grasp this, because war would seem fatal for both sides. Then Egypt stepped back from the brink.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Global Power Disparity Resumes for Africa, Latin America
RESOURCES