STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
All Fall Down: Is Civilizational Collapse Even Worth Considering?
Failure to consider and plan for the greatest of global uncertainties means a guaranteed unreadiness to meet them.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Strategic Messaging: The Frequent Point of Failure
Has the US’ patchy record in strategic messaging robbed it of the consistent strategic progress it could have had, and denied it the support of various societies around the world? This may be coming to a head in 2026. But first, how do we define “strategic messaging” in the 21st Century?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | The Deep War: Between the Process and Outcome Sectors
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
ESSENTIAL READING | The origins and history of the US’s obsession to make its aerial ground attack weapons more “precise”
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Geopolitics: The Re-Shaped Middle East Is Transforming the World
Old concepts of “the Middle East” using various geographic models, or using Arab or Arabic or Muslim overlays, are now not representative of the “new Middle East” which is, for the first time in centuries, less definable than ever, by its name and by other simple descriptors.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The View from 1997: New Strategic Environments Demand a New Doctrinal View
The global military environment has, with the political division of the world, changed dramatically since 1990. But military doctrine, and the tools to cope with the new world, are still insufficiently developed.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRACTORIES | Taking Meaning — and Lessons — from Mutinies
Western analysts have been consistently keen to demonize Vladimir Putin, and predict his early departure. Wishful thinking is never good policy analysis. Assassinations and illness are always wild-cards and possibilities. But the Wagner episode was a mutiny in a teacup.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Global Architecture: When Will There Be a New Global Order?
The “Rules-Based World Order” is in hospice care. Are we already in the inter-pax years?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
CURRENT ESTIMATE | The Ambiguities of Australia’s Defence Strategic Review
A staff estimate on a topic of current importance
Argentina
When the Balloon Goes Up …
Balloon warfare has been advancing for years. Now, a public outcry at PRC balloon ops has generated a strategic watershed, damaging to Beijing.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
AUKUS: Some Steps Forward, Some Back
The AUKUS alliance is moving toward a viable global operational structure, as much to deal with the world after the potential collapse of the Communist Party of China, as to confront Beijing today. But is Australia, its smallest partner, still thinking just too small?