ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
Risk Averse? Risk Ignorant?
Calculating risk, opportunity, and context: how the failure of our policy tools contributes to the current collapse of the strategic balance. Changing times mean changing tools.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Why Sri Lanka’s Election Matters to the Global Balance
Underlying everything is whether the PRC, now facing instability due to its economic crisis, can continue to pursue a broader strategic contest in the Indo-Pacific, or whether it must contract to control the mainland while continuing a non-kinetic war with the West.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
ESSENTIAL READING | When Is a Blockade a “Quarantine”?
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
Awakening From Dreams: Strategic Infrastructure Plans Which May Disappear
Great plans to transform global supply chain dominance have largely been destroyed by economic and political collapse, from Beijing to most Western capitals.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
All Fall Down…What’s Next?
Former UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson said that a week was a long time in politics. The remainder of 2024 is, then, an eternity. Is there anywhere a respite from seemingly irrational instability?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Societies Alike in Their Strategic Unhappiness
SOVEREIGNTY
The Unfinished Battle
The European Union parliamentary elections, the 2024 US elections, Britain’s general election — and others — highlight the reality that “the reaction of 2016” has resumed.
HISTORY
ESSENTIAL READING | History’s Lessons Along the Sea Routes
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
What If Xi Jinping Could Attempt Formal Taiwan Conflict in 2024?
The only logic which needs to be understood at this stage is that of Communist Party of China General Secretary Xi Jinping.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Scramble for Antarctica
Barriers are coming down to unilateral power projection around the world as treaties and prestige decline for major powers. Now, Antarctica becomes truly an area of competition.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Is Beijing’s Relative Position Declining in the Pacific?
Internal challenges within the US and the PRC seem more likely than external events to determine the overall outcome of their strategic competition, but the broader Pacific context now seems to be nudging incrementally in favor of the US/Western position.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR