DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
The AUKUS alliance is moving toward a viable global operational structure, as much to deal with the world after the potential collapse of the Communist Party of China, as to confront Beijing today. But is Australia, its smallest partner, still thinking just too small?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The civil war within the party moves into a new phase of suppression of Xi’s opponents and the broader public. The damage to the international economy will be immense. The cost to the Chinese people will be immeasurably more severe.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Australia is running into a new “submarine gap”, and a submarine budget which severely distorts its defense budget and strategic profile. What is to be done?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Australia is more ready to resist a PRC military thrust southward than it was to face the Japanese southward thrust in World War II. And the PRC’s capability today may not be as potent in the relative balance as Japan’s was in 1941.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Australia
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
The net effect of the PRC and India simultaneously addressing “domestic” unrest may reflect current international distractions, but long-term damage to their strategic freedom of action is likely to occur
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Beijing makes Taiwan denial a 2019 primary focus, while the US-led alliance slowly awakens.