STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Beijing Bid to Move Beyond the First Island Chain Marked by a Major Failure
The Solomons situation is a significant one for the broader strategic framework and how it plays out over the coming two-plus years.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Who Lost the Pacific?
Great power paternalism finally has its answer. The Pacific states themselves may be taking their region back.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 06/2024
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Is Beijing’s Relative Position Declining in the Pacific?
Internal challenges within the US and the PRC seem more likely than external events to determine the overall outcome of their strategic competition, but the broader Pacific context now seems to be nudging incrementally in favor of the US/Western position.
AUKUS alliance
Strategic Architecture: An Evolution in the Pacific
A new geopolitical bloc is forming in Oceania, and it may be strategically significant.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | The PRC’s War Plans Against Taiwan Keep Evolving
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Alliances: Know When to Fold 'em
We cling to old alliances as we cling to childhood blankets, and treat them just as badly. But do we understand them, and their finite lifespans and purposes?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | The South Pacific: A War to Start All Wars?
Beijing ups its Indo-Pacific thrust while the West diverts its resources into Europe.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Australia’s New Government: Ramifications for the Indo-Pacific
It is unlikely that a domestically-built Australian SSN will ever be launched. But, after about seven decades, the nuclear power debate is now on in Australia. So the Royal Australian Navy may acquire Virginia-class SSNs while Australian unmanned, autonomous submarines evolve.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing's Indo-Pacific Arc of Power Crystallizes
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Indo-Pacific: EABO and the Need for Speed
Strategic shock in the Pacific might occur as suddenly as it did in Ukraine. Who's ready?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Under the Ukraine Cloud, PRC Makes First Challenge to AUKUS
The Solomons and Kiribati moves place the PRC into the South Pacific, beyond the First Island Chain. This would inhibit AUKUS’ ability to protect Taiwan in the event of war. It would also put the PRC astride the junction of major undersea comms cables near the Solomons.