PERSONNEL
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Taking the Magic out of Strategic Analysis
Why were so few states prepared for the major strategic breakpoints over the past 50 years, when Defense & Foreign Affairs had consistently laid out just why change was occurring?
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | 2026: The Consequential Years Gather Momentum
It is not as though 2025 was an inconsequential year. Many strategic trends came into focus, particularly around the (finally) visible collapse of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). But 2026 will see the clarification of even more events of global consequence.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Universal Unrest and its Meaning
The crowds are in the streets, everywhere, and in different forms, showing signs of fatigue, anger, despair, and more. How does this impact policymaking, economics, and defense decision-making? And how can we think about, and cope, with this phenomenon?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Civilizational Collapse as Reality
The November 2025 publication of the United States' National Security Strategy was widely seen by critics as proof of a clear and explicit divergence between the United States and Europe.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Post-China: Thinking Beyond Beijing
The collapse of communist China had become irrefutable as 2025 came to an end.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | The Imperial Drumbeat Quickens
Imperial conquest is returning to the world in a new form, just as we have digested the earlier ages of imperial conquests. Our world is the result of the absorption of smaller states over millennia, even most states which emerged from colonialism in the latter half of the 20th Century.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
ESSENTIAL READING | An Apple a Day Didn’t Work Out Well
Apple is perhaps the single most important US tech company successfully supplying its commercial products to the world. This book presents a devastating picture of its foray into China and reveals the failure of the US Government to be a part of the considerations Apple took into account.
SOVEREIGNTY
Sovereignty, Borders, If You Can Keep Them
One of the founders of the post-British United States of America, Benjamin Franklin, was asked what would be the nature of the new nation. He answered: “A republic; if you can keep it.”
RESOURCES
Strategic Resources: Rare Earths in Australia
Modern war would chew through a lot of rare earth elements.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Searching for “Democracy 2.0”, or Something Better?
The world is divided into those who think nothing can change the fundamental shape and trajectory of society, and those who think radical dislocation is already emerging. But now, more than at any time in the past 3 centuries, change is occurring, whether we wish to have a hand in shaping it, or not
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
China is Now in Suspended Animation
An almost universal desire to avoid change — particularly unpleasant change — helps the Communist Party of China portray an image of business-as-usual…when it’s not.